In recent years, the world order has accelerated its evolution, and the global geopolitical game has become increasingly fierce. In various hot events, there is a weapon that has attracted much attention and its role on the battlefield is becoming increasingly prominent, which is the cruise missile.

        To some extent, cruise missiles are redefining the modern battlefield. Countries around the world also favor cruise missiles and have increased their research and procurement efforts. Only this year, Türkiye National Defense Technology Engineering and Trading Company (STM) announced that the new "Kagu" patrol missile equipped with armor piercing warheads was successfully tested; Australia announces acceleration of the development of the third phase of precision cruise missiles; India's Kadet Defense Systems Company has launched its self-developed "Kadet" series of cruise missiles, with plans to deliver at least 50 sets to the Indian military by the end of this year; The US Army has signed a $990 million procurement contract for the "Spring Knife" cruise missile with American Aerospace Environment Corporation.

        Once technological advances can be used for military purposes and have already been used for military purposes, they immediately almost forcibly, and often against the will of the commander, cause changes or even transformations in the mode of combat. As a "newcomer on the battlefield", why did the cruise missile make a sudden rise, what "game rules" have it changed on the battlefield, and what is its potential for development in the future? Please read the interpretation.

Data picture of Türkiye's "Kagu" patrol missile equipped with armour piercing warheads

Technology integration——

A versatile player who dominates the battlefield

        Patrol missiles can be simply understood as drones equipped with explosives. It is like an airborne assassin waiting for an opportunity to move, able to patrol and hover in the target area for a long time. Once it detects the target, it immediately dives down and seals its throat with one sword.

        Since its inception, the cruise missile has undergone continuous iteration and development, becoming a new type of weapon that is "half unmanned aerial vehicle and half missile". At present, patrol missiles have been successively applied to the Syrian conflict, the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other actual battles, showing great operational potential.

        The reason why the cruise missile quickly became popular is due to its integration of various advanced technologies, which can be said to be the combination of the strengths of hundreds of schools.

        Firstly, navigation and guidance technology. The patrol missile adopts various navigation methods such as satellite navigation, inertial navigation, and image matching. This enables it to accurately fly towards its target in complex battlefield environments, even if satellite signals are lost or interfered with. Next is communication technology. Unlike the early "launch and forget" mode, nowadays, patrol missiles are mostly controlled by rear operators after launch. An efficient communication link can ensure stable data transmission between cruise missiles and rear control stations. Operators can real-time monitor the operational status and target area conditions of cruise missiles, and issue or update instructions based on changes in the battlefield situation to control the timing, direction, and angle of cruise missile attacks on targets. In addition, advanced power technology, sensor technology, etc. have significantly enhanced the endurance of cruise missiles and their ability to discover, identify, and track battlefield targets.

        According to different combat needs on the battlefield, patrol missiles are divided into different types. In terms of size and attack targets, cruise missiles can be divided into three categories: mini, tactical, and long-range cruise missiles. Among them, the mini cruise missile is designed for "close range combat" and is usually a quadcopter aircraft used by infantry or special forces. Its main targets are ground personnel and light vehicles; Tactical patrol missiles have a slightly larger volume and are mostly equipped in armored units, capable of conducting anti armor operations and used to strike key enemy assets; Remote cruise missiles are equivalent to small cruise missiles, launched by aircraft, ships, or ground vehicles, mainly used for conducting out of defense attacks to "shape the battlefield".

        In addition, in terms of power configuration, load selection, and exterior design, cruise missiles can be flexibly configured: they can be equipped with small turbojet engines or turbofan engines to obtain powerful power, or they can choose quiet, low infrared characteristic electric engines to enhance concealment; It can be equipped with high-definition cameras, infrared sensors and other reconnaissance equipment according to mission requirements, as well as high explosive explosives, armor piercing warheads and other attack ammunition; It can adopt a conventional missile shape to achieve high-speed flight and breakthrough capability, or increase hovering time and range by using high aspect ratio wings like ordinary drones.

        As a combination of drones and cruise missiles, cruise missiles have become a highly anticipated "versatile" on the battlefield due to their unique performance and diverse functions. On the one hand, cruise missiles can patrol and fly for long periods of time in the forefront or deep areas of the battlefield, conducting reconnaissance and surveillance of enemy targets, and providing important intelligence support for combat command; On the other hand, cruise missiles can also directly carry out precise strikes on important targets such as tanks, armored vehicles, command posts, and communication hubs, and have faster response times, lower operating costs, and longer "hovering" time in the target area compared to traditional cruise missiles. At the same time, patrol missiles also have multiple functions such as target indication, information relay, area blockade, and battlefield evaluation. Patrol missiles can continuously track and locate discovered targets, while transmitting accurate location information to other firepower strike units to guide the implementation of attacks. After the strike is completed, the damage effect is evaluated, providing reference for subsequent combat operations.

Military Industry Newcomer——

A 'potential stock' that cannot be underestimated

        The development of cruise missiles has a history of more than 40 years, but for a long time after its release, it has always been a peripheral product in the military market.

        As early as the 1980s, Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) combined a decoy drone designed for air defense systems with anti radiation missiles to develop the first generation of cruise missiles. However, at that time, many countries did not attach great importance to such weapons and did not pay much attention to research and development, so this product did not cause any waves in the military market.

        In recent years, the battlefield environment has become increasingly complex, and combat styles have constantly evolved, placing higher demands on the flexibility, accuracy, and multitasking capabilities of weapons and equipment. Patrol missiles can not only meet the diverse combat needs of different countries and regions' armies, but also to some extent compensate for the shortcomings of small and medium-sized countries in traditional weapons and equipment, and obtain strong combat capabilities at a lower cost. At the same time, it also has unique advantages in carrying out tasks such as counter-terrorism and stability maintenance.

        In the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh conflict, cruise missiles shone brightly and became a key factor affecting the situation; In the Russia-Ukraine conflict that broke out in 2022, the use frequency of patrol missiles increased significantly, and the operational efficiency was particularly prominent, thus becoming a star weapon highly concerned by military forces around the world.

        With cruise missiles becoming a new frontier in military technology competition among major powers, many countries have increased their investment in production and research and development. Patrol missiles are experiencing vigorous development and have become a hot commodity in the military industry market.

        According to the 2023 research report on cruise missiles released by the Vertical Flight Association of the United States, there were less than 10 countries producing cruise missiles worldwide in 2017. Currently, nearly 30 countries and over 120 entities are involved in the development and production of such weapons. The number of models launched in the past two years is equivalent to the total of the previous five years. In addition, some global market research institutions and data analysis consulting companies also conduct research on relevant markets in Asia Pacific, North America, Europe and other regions, and based on this, release multiple market analysis and forecast reports in 2023. According to relevant data, the global cruise missile market size will be 1.03 billion US dollars in 2022, approximately 1.2 billion US dollars in 2023, and is expected to increase to 3.04 billion US dollars by 2030, with an average annual compound growth rate of 14.2%. The above report also conducted detailed research based on different indicators: in terms of ammunition types, the current market share of manual positioning cruise missiles is relatively high, but in the future, autonomous identification positioning cruise missiles will achieve the fastest growth rate; In terms of user groups, the Army is the fastest-growing segment with a market share of 50.34% in 2022, followed by the Air Force in second place; In terms of regional markets, North America currently dominates the cruise missile market, with a market share of 33.98% in 2022. However, the Asia Pacific region is expected to become the largest consumer market in the future, with a cumulative investment of up to 2.2 billion US dollars expected in the next 10 years.

        With the application of more advanced technologies such as cluster technology, stealth technology, artificial intelligence, modularization, and lightweighting, the performance and effectiveness of cruise missiles will be further improved, and more market growth opportunities will be created. As predicted by many analysts, as a rising "potential stock" in the military industry, cruise missiles have shown strong vitality and broad development prospects.

Autonomous decision-making——

The 'smart brain' is a double-edged sword

        Compared with other weapon systems, the outstanding feature of cruise missiles is their strong autonomous decision-making ability.

        One is autonomous maneuverability. By installing autonomous navigation systems, cruise missiles can manage and command their own movements without the direct involvement of human operators. It can not only achieve autonomous flight based on pre programmed routes, but also autonomously plan flight routes to designated locations based on the geographic coordinates of the waypoint input by the operator. During the flight, cruise missiles can automatically avoid obstacles and even return to their base without finding a suitable target, greatly reducing the burden on human operators.

        The second is the ability of autonomous recognition. With the help of a series of advanced sensors and electro-optical, infrared, and radar systems, cruise missiles can autonomously detect and track potential targets. Through an automatic target recognition system based on artificial intelligence and image recognition algorithms, they can distinguish multiple targets such as tanks, aircraft, missiles, and radars in real time, and even select high-value targets from a group of people.

        The third is the ability of autonomous attack. When carrying out attacks, cruise missiles can autonomously choose the optimal attack direction, impact angle, and timing. At present, cruise missiles are considered to follow the principle of "human in the loop", which means that humans can intervene or take over at any time through bidirectional data connections, thus retaining the power to "unplug the pin" at the end. However, Türkiye's defense technology engineering and trade company and other patrol missile manufacturers have hinted that their products have the potential to "independently and accurately strike targets without manual intervention". In 2021, a survey report by a United Nations expert group also concluded that the Kagu-2 cruise missile "can autonomously attack targets without establishing data connectivity with operators.

        In recent years, the trend of closely integrating cruise missiles with automation and artificial intelligence technology has become increasingly evident. As a defense analyst from GlobalData stated, with the support of advanced technologies such as automation and artificial intelligence, the "brain" of cruise missiles will become increasingly "smart" and may develop towards autonomous weapon systems in the future.

        However, the 'smart brain' is a double-edged sword. This kind of "autonomy" not only enhances combat effectiveness, but also brings significant ethical dilemmas that cannot be ignored in terms of morality and law. Before authorizing an attack, human operators may not always be able to visually or otherwise verify the target, and may also exhibit "automation bias" due to various factors such as rapidly changing battlefield conditions, that is, excessive reliance on target selection made by cruise missiles. This can easily create a "target differentiation dilemma", making it difficult for cruise missiles to accurately distinguish between military and civilian targets during attacks. Once innocent civilians are injured or killed as a result, the dilemma of responsibility attribution arises. Unlike traditional combat modes where humans are the sole responsible parties, the use of cruise missiles is actually a joint role played by weapon systems and humans. Therefore, it is difficult to clarify who is responsible, whether it is the operator in the rear, the weapon system itself, or the designer or manufacturer of the weapon system? After all, human errors, program failures, design flaws, and quality defects can all be the "culprits". There is currently no clear ethical code or legal regulation in the world regarding this.

        In addition, cruise missiles lower the threshold and moral constraints of war. Compared to other missiles, cruise missiles have lower operating costs, higher combat effectiveness, and are easy to operate. Especially for the operators of patrol missiles who participate in non direct combat, there is almost zero risk of casualties, greatly reducing the various concerns and pressures caused by the use of force on decision-makers. Therefore, the possibility of some countries and organizations choosing to use force rather than peaceful means to resolve disputes will increase, which obviously contradicts the fundamental ethical values of pursuing peace and avoiding war.